Worth The Read: “Antitrust case could be Armageddon”

A good little piece about the American Needle vs. NFL case. There will be a lot more to come on TSR.

Worth The Read: “Health Care Reform… for the NFL”.

Follow this link for an interesting take on the state of the NFL’s health system. We here at TSR are interested in exposing you to a variety of views, and aren’t necessarily saying we agree or disagree with this piece, just that it’s worth the read.

Basketball: The Advantage Possession Concept

The “Advantage Possession” concept came from my logical understanding of the pure statistics of the game of basketball. Essentially, the more shots that a team takes, the more they will score. This is so because, over a given arc of time, the team will make x% of its shots. This Advantage Possession “statistic” is a negative one.  Generally, you “give up” advantage possessions to the other team and allow them an opportunity to increase their scoring output by giving them a chance to generate more points by having more shots, be them from the field or the free throw line. Of course, it would be equally easy to conceptualize this concept as a positive one, it makes more sense to me to turn it around since most of these things I will talk about are things that a team that wants to win seeks to avoid (and, I just tend to conceptualize things in the negative). Allow me to add that I never took statistics, so take that for what it’s worth…

Say, for arguments sake, that a team makes 50% of shots taken from the field and 50% of its shots from the FT line.  If neither team in a game gave the other team an AP, the score of the game would end tied. I say this with the caveat that this does not account for 3-point shooting. I do this because, again as I conceptualize the game, the shooting of and making of trips is balanced by the shooting and missing. I do realize that, generally, the percentage is at times too low to make up the difference and at times too high to not be accounted for. I suppose that it could be considered another type of category, but I have, admittedly, struggled with how to assess this on a possession-by-possession basis since this concept is, for me, an in-game tool.  I also have neither the time nor the expertise to do the proverbial math in assessing the difference a three point shot makes since I rely entirely on logic in coming up with this concept.

NFL Free Agency: Cassel Deal Not As Crazy As It Seems

New Chief's QB Matt Cassel circa his last start prior to '08

Even as the Pittsburgh Steelers left the field as the victors of Super Bowl XLIII, the Kansas City Chiefs (or, Chieftons, as I prefer to refer to them) were in the proverbial midst of a renovation project that has begun to make the mid-80’s Statue of Liberty makeover look like a small kitchen remodeling.

Before the game, the Chieftons introduced former-New England Patriots exec Scott Pioli as their new general manager. Pioli wasted little to no time by removing Herman Edwards as coach and trading for what Pioli hoped would be KC’s franchise QB, Matt Cassel. For his part, Cassel is believed to be the only player to start an NFL game without so much as making a start in college. A career back-up at USC, Cassel was one of the last picks in the 2005 draft, picked in the seventh and last round by the Patriots. He remained Tom Brady’s backup until the first game of the 2008/2009 season when these same Chieftons sidelined Thomas for the season.

At no point did Cassel really blow anyone away, which makes this whole situation a little strange. He was proficient at times, and above average at times. Never was he spectacular. He kept the Pats in the playoff hunt, even though they eventually missed the cut. As Cassel’s luck would have it, he was in the final year of his rookie contract. I don’t know if anyone believed he would be in football the for the 2009/2010 season before the year began (though, I don’t know if anyone believed he wouldn’t be either). Because of Brady’s injury, his stock sky-rocketed and New England placed the “franchise” tag on Cassel, who signed the 1-year tender offer entitling him to compensation of $14.561 million dollars.

Either way, Pioli, who was responsible for drafting Cassel three and change years earlier, decided he was the guy for the Chieftons. KC gave up a second rounder for the QB and yesterday the Cheiftons and Cassel reached an agreement on a 6-year $63,000,000 contract (28 in guaranteed money).

My first reaction was that the Chiefs are absolutely in-effing-sane. Then, I thought a little bit about the whole NFL cap system.

In April, the Detroit Lions drafted and signed Matthew Stafford to a 6-year deal worth $78 million with $41.7 million guaranteed United States dollars.

Either way, both of these cats are set for life. Maybe this says more about the need for a rookie salary cap than it does for the reasonableness of the Cassel deal but think about this. Cassel lead an NFL team to an 11-5 record last season. Stafford lead a college team to basically nothing last year (except for beating my Spartans inn the Capital One Bowl… unimpressively I might add). Yes, I realize that the Pats were loaded, but Cassel still had to line up behind center and be at least average. And, in fact, he was above average for most of the season. While $63 million is a lot of money, even in NFL terms, it’s only above average money for starting QB’s in today’s NFL. Even if Cassel turns out to be a reasonably average QB, this is about the normal deal he would get in today’s QB-vaccuum NFL. Besides, they were already going to pay the guy almost 15 million this year and, if they didn’t lock him up, he’d be gone or they’d have to tag him again and most likely pay him over 15 million next year. Stafford, on the other hand, has not thrown an NFL pass ever and is making 1.5 times as much guaranteed money and significantly more overall.

The other thing worth noting is the “cap value” threat these guys pose. Without going into too much detail, the NFL owners opted out of the current collective bargaining agreement with the NFLPA and, as it stands right now, the 2012 year will either be 1) uncapped, 2) not happen, or 3) happen with a higher salary cap. In any of those events, the cap hits their teams take will be seriously lessened if they don’t pan out. (have no fear, you’ll get plenty of Salary Cap discussion from us in the coming months)

Look, the fact is both QB’s could (and my money is on will) bomb. They could be terrible and if they are, their teams will be seriously set back. In NFL QB terms, though, Cassel’s deal is not a bad deal for anyone.

NBA Free Agency: How the Turkoglu Was Lost

I don’t want this to sound like I am coming down on Orlando Magic GM Otis Smith too hard because I think he has done a spectacular job building the Magic into a contender. A few years ago when Brian Hill needed to go, he looked for a “teaching” coach for his young team and ended up with Stan VanGundy (who many believe is the best “teaching” coach in the NBA). That was the right move and it has paid off.  Last season, he effectively saved the season by working out a deal for Rafer Alston when Jameer Nelson went down (although, he did waste everyones time by trading for Tyronn Lue first).

After the Magic fell tragically short of the ultimate prize this season, Hedo Turkoglu exercised his option to opt out of his contract to hit the free agent market. Probably because of the slumping economy, many high profile free agents decided not to opt out of their deals (Kobe Bryant, Carlos Boozer), easily making Turkoglu the highest profile free agent available. The same thing that made Turk the biggest asset in the Magic’s run, also made him tops on teams wish lists. Turk had said he was willing to take less money to stay in Orlando, somehow he got away.

Technically, the Magic did resign Hedo taking advantage of the sign-and-trade option the NBA uniquely offers. So what happened? You might expect that I say the Magic took on too much salary by trading for Vince Carter. That’s not why, at least not in my estimation. I’ll get there, but let’s take a look at what the salaries look like for a little context.

Last season, the Magic paid Hedo 6.8 million in U.S. dollars. For the 2009 season, he was scheduled to make 7.3 million and his new deal has him making 10.1 million next year. Over the course of the 5-year deal his salary increases 8.1% per season. Looking at other salaries on the team, Dwight Howard (13 million), Jameer Nelson (7.6 million), and Rashard Lewis (16.4 million) all were paid more than Turk for 2008/2009. With a new season, and a new cap, players’ salaries increase.

Interestingly, the 2009 net increase for the Magic’s three don’t change the bottom line that much. While Howard (15.1) and Lewis (18.8)  will make about 2 million more each, Nelson is going to be paid 1.5 less than he was this year. Then, in what some considered a major addition (those people would not include yours truly), the Magic landed Vincent Carter and his 16.3 million 2009/2010 salary. Orlando’s projected salary for the season is about 68 million, brushing right up against the luxury tax line.

The Magic wanted Turkoglu back, so much so that management said the team would be willing to pay luxury tax to keep him. Turkoglu wanted to come back to Orlando, so much so that he said he would take less money to stay.  It just didn’t work out that way.

While it is true that the addition of Carter’s salary made it financially untenable for Turk and Orlando to do a proverbial deal, the former’s Florida homecoming is not the reason the Magic could not afford Turkoglu. For that, I need to take you back to the Summer of 2007.

Under the NBA’s Collective Bargaining Agreement, unlike in the NFL or MLB, a player’s salary is capped at a maximum amount and a maximum length (you’ve probably heard the term “max deal”).  On July 17, 2007, Rashard Lewis was introduced to the Orlando Magic fans having just signed a “max deal” of 6 years, $110 million. Lewis, who had spent his whole career with the Seattle Supersonics, came to Orlando by way of sign-and-trade. He wasn’t on the market long, and the Magic did not have any competition from the home team. The Sonics had drafted Kevin Durant and found the then-27 year old forward expendable.

Lewis is an extremely talented player, to be sure. The Magic would certainly not be the team they are without him.  He presents the all important match-up problems that teams fear. He shoots the jumper too well to be guarded by a 4, is too big for a 3, and too quick for a 5 to cover. That being said, Rashard Lewis was not, and is not, a max-deal player.

My issue is not so much with signing of Lewis, but how it came about. In fact, I can understand why the Magic coveted Lewis as a complement to Dwight Howard.  I can understand getting into a bidding war because you want a player just that bad, thinking he is the final piece to your championship puzzle. That, however, is not how the deal went down. Not only did the Magic not have any contest from the Sonics in signing Lewis, they had almost no competition from anyone in the league. Houston showed some interest, but the Magic simply broke the cardinal rule in negotiation and bid against themselves. It doesn’t seem like much, but Orlando could have saved a few million a season.  Even if the they could have paid Lewis at Dwight Howard levels, that’s 3.8 million in 2009/2010 dollars they could have offered Turkoglu and 3.8 million further away from the luxury tax making a deal possible and palatable.

At the time the signing went down, I had a conversation with a friend from school in which I remarked both that Lewis is extremely talented but not a max-deal player AND that the Magic would rue the day they broke the aforementioned cardinal rule. Unfortunately for me and other Magic fans, July 9, 2009, is that day.